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There has been no comparable election race in my lifetime, Brown was down 31 points around Christmas and came back to win by 5. A 36 point electoral turnaround is unheard of in any state, but considering that Republicans only comprise 12% of the electorate in Massachusetts, the Brown Campaign had to convert a large number of Democrats along with almost all of the independents.
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Brown won by out working his opponent and by several Coakley gaffs, but mainly by voter dissatisfaction with the Democrats in Washington. I watched a Frank Luntz focus group last night on Fox and he asked the opinion of voters who voted for Obama and then Brown. None of these voters blamed Coakley, instead they complained about the health care bill, out of control spending and the special favors given to political allies.
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This election could possibly help Democrats in 2010. By eliminating the filibuster proof majority and by sending shockwaves through the party, Democrats might finally feel the need to compromise, and if nothing else, at least they could get the Republicans to share the blame for any problems that come up in the next election cycle.
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Brown will probably be a very moderate republican. Since only 12% of the voters are registered Republicans, his reelection chances 2 years from now are already uncertain. But moderates are necessary. The extremists on both sides of American politics have avoided many of our worst problems by blaming the other side for everything.
Here are some good reads;
- Classy Brown, by Andrew Sullivan in The Atlantic
- Don’t get overly excited GOP, by Michelle Malkin
- Is this election a Blessing in Disguise for the Democrats? – Boston Globe
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