**UPDATED
This post contains my quick and dirty prediction of Republican Party gains during the 2010 elections. I picked a Republican gain of 9 seats and I am sticking with it.
However, if you are looking for more detailed analysis than I can provide, then I would suggest the following sites:
- Here is Gallup’s thorough analysis of voter intention and enthusiasm.
- Rasmussen has Republicans 51% and Democrats 39% in a generic poll…Ouch!!
- Jay Cost has a quality if optimistic view of the potential Republican tidal wave.
Now, I have two warnings regarding the elections in the House of Representatives; first, very few of these election matchups have been polled; so few candidates know exactly where they stand with the voters.
Second, many of the House districts have been gerrymandered. Many Democrats are from districts that have been fireproofed. They can’t be knocked off by Republicans under almost any conditions because their districts are shaped to contain few Republican voters. (Many Republicans are in districts like this also.)
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Now regarding this post.
These are my updated predictions for the elections in the US Senate as of Saturday October 30th. I haven’t changed my mind on any of the Senate races. In fact the new Real Clear Politics polls are only confirming my original choices. Of the 8 tossup seats; the 6 that I thought would go Republican have shown Republican movement and the 2 that looked like gains for the Democrats are moving Democratic also.
I think that he most interesting race is in Washington State. On October 26th I listed this as a pure tossup, but now it appears to be moving ever so slightly Republican. I originally picked this pure tossup as a Republican gain because the most motivated voters are on the conservative side of the spectrum.
I’ve left the remainder if this post unchanged with the exception of adding a column for the “Updated Republican Lead in the Real Clear Politics Polls” in the Spreadsheet below.**
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The most probable outcome will be a Republican gain of 9 seats, and the composition of the Senate will be 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. There will also be 2 independents who vote with the Democrats. Thus the Senate will be divided into a 50/50 split.
My more conservative guess is for a Senate consisting of 49 Republicans and 49+2 Democrats. And my more optimistic guess is of a Republican majority of 52.
The source of my analysis is the current Real Clear Politics polling data; along with the excellent article by Sean Trende called “Who’s Going to Vote This Year?”
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Here is what you need to know about the Senate Races
- The current makeup of the Senate is 41 Republicans and 57+2 Democrats
- The Democrats won’t pickup any Republican Seats.
- Three Democratic Seats will certainly switch to the Republicans; those Republican victories will be in Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota.
- There are eight other toss-up Seats; all of which are held by Democrats.
Here are my estimated Republican victory margins for those eight toss-up Seats:
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The assumptions of the Election Pollsters
If you are interested in how the pollsters decide exactly which people to poll then again, I would suggest that you read Sean Trende’s article – “Who’s Going to Vote This Year?”
He makes the point that the “The most difficult job a pollster has is trying to figure out who the actual voters are going to be in a given election year.” The article persuaded me that the pollsters are over-estimating the percentage of Democrats who will vote this year.
I added the “Sean Trende Adjustment” in order to compensate for the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. And my guess is that even this adjustment might be a bit conservative; this is why I turned Washington State’s pure tossup into a Republican win in my analysis. And, If the race breaks perfectly for Republicans then they might even grab 2 more seats for a majority of 52.
Elections like this will surely be full of suprises. Someone will certainly lose a safe seat and someone else, who now appears to have little chance will shock us all; so if nothing else, this will be a fascinating event. Maybe Linda McMahon will win in Connecticut and one of the Republicans who appear safe will lose.
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Senate Results by State
Here is a summary of the 37 seats up for election in the Senate and how I speculate that the election will change them.
