If you want to know whether a Republican tidal wave is going to wash over the United States during this election, then pay attention to the West Virginia Senate Race on election night. This is an east coast state which will show its results early and showcases two strong candidates. Republican John Raese is a successful business owner who is a down the line conservative on both economic and social issues; while Joe Manchin is currently the very popular Democratic Governor.
This race has been clean; at least by national standards, with the only below the belt attacks that I know of, being Manchin attacking Raese’s wealth.
West Virginia’s politics is dominated by the Democratic Party. Currently the state has a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators and 2 of its 3 Representatives are Democrats. West Virginia tends to vote more like its eastern neighbor Maryland than like its southern neighbor Virginia.
Its major industry traditionally has been coal mining and a large proportion of the State’s voters are union members.
I have predicted that the Democrat, Joe Manchin will win this election by about 9% and the Real Clear Politics poll average currently has this race as 4.5% for Manchin.
However, if Raese runs a close race and stays behind by 2-3% during election night, then it will be an extremely good evening for Republicans. And if Raese starts to pull ahead after the polls close then it could be a Republican tidal wave of historical proportions.